Detroit Quit EVs. Then Trump Bombed Iran.
As gas prices hit a national average of $4.32 a gallon, a lot of people are doing math they probably didn’t expect to be doing so soon after the federal EV tax credit expired.
Then again, the world’s a very different place than it was late last year.
Before Feb. 28 – the day the U.S. and Israel began bombing Iran, which responded by closing the Strait of Hormuz and sending global oil markets into a spiral – the U.S. EV market was having a rough winter.
Federal tax credits had expired. Automakers were booking billions in write-downs and canceling models. Ford killed the all-electric F-150 Lightning. Stellantis axed the electric Ram 1500. The Chevy Blazer EV was selling remarkably poorly.
Then gas went up 50% in 90 days, and the math changed.
Driving a 28-mpg gas car now costs about 15 cents per mile at today's prices. By comparison, driving a fully electric battery EV (BEV) costs - as a national average - around 5 cents per mile in home-charging electricity. If you’re an LPEA member who charges overnight or during the day on the co-op's time-of-use rate, you’re paying around 2 cents per mile, assuming 3.5 miles/kWh.
That's a $1,250-per-year difference for an average national driver and around a $1,600 difference for LPEA members.
So are new EV sales surging? That depends where you’re looking.
Used EVs are moving fast, even in this country. They’re up 12% year-over-year and hitting record market share – 2.8% of the used market in April. Hybrids are having their best moment ever, capturing 26% of new vehicle sales. But new BEV sales are actually down 27% year-over-year.
The demand signal is real, but the supply isn't there to meet it, because the industry spent 2024 and 2025 betting that cheap gas was forever.
Meanwhile, EV sales in Europe are surging. UK BEV sales jumped 59% in April. France, Germany, and Italy posted comparable gains. Chinese automakers – who never stopped investing in electrification – have hit 10% European market share, with BYD outselling Tesla in Europe for the first time ever. One Fortune headline put it bluntly: “While Detroit blinked on EVs, the Iran war has handed Chinese automakers the opportunity of a lifetime."
“As tragic as it is – war is tragic for anyone involved – it is probably one of the best things that could have happened to the Chinese EV makers,” Tu Le, the founder and managing director of Sino Auto Insights, told Fortune.
Energy analysts generally expect U.S. gas prices to stay elevated through at least the end of the year. (I’ve also heard “2032” being thrown around.) Edmunds' lead analyst offers a useful rule of thumb: It takes roughly six months of sustained high gas prices before consumer behavior shifts in any durable way. That window is open right now – and with used EV prices still well below their 2022 peak, the opportunity is real.
The economic case for driving electric has rarely been clearer. If you don't already own an EV and want to talk through your options – especially in the used market, where the best value is right now – reach out to 4CORE's clean transportation program manager, Chris Cottrell. He can walk you through what's available, what incentives remain, and what fits your situation. You can reach him at chris@fourcore.org or (970) 233-2188.
The oil price roller coaster will continue to be just that: a roller coaster. Electric, it turns out, offers a much smoother ride.
